Value of the Britain’s national output surpassed that of Brazil in 2012, according to CEBR, but India expected to overtake UK by 2017
Britain moved up to sixth in the global economic league table during 2012, overtaking Brazil despite a year of flatlining activity.
A survey from the Centre for Economic and Business Research (CEBR) found that the value of the UK’s national output surpassed that of Latin America’s biggest economy following a fall in the value of its currency, the real.
The CEBR said it would take until 2014 for Brazil to once again supplant the UK in its World Economic League Table (WELT), and that by 2017 Britain would also have fallen behind a fast-rising India.
Douglas McWilliams, CEBR chief executive, said: “The Indians have lost to us at cricket this winter but they are on track to beat us at economics. By 2017 we predict that the Indian economy will be the largest economy in the Commonwealth, overtaking the UK economy.
“We are beating some other countries, though. We are poised to overtake France either in 2013 or 2014 as the economic effects of President Hollande’s 75% tax policy and the difficulties of the euro drag France down.
“We have been neck and neck with Brazil for some time. Last year they overtook us; this year we have overtaken them again. From 2014 onwards, however, their more dynamic economy is likely to pull them decisively beyond us.”
Although the first official estimate of UK growth will not be published until late January 2013, the Bank of England and the Treasury believe that there will be a small fall in output in the final three months of the year, leaving GDP virtually unchanged between 2011 and 2012.
The five biggest economies in the world in 2012 were the same as in 2011, with the US followed by China, Japan, Germany and France. The CEBR said that the three top spots would remain unchanged for the next decade, although China’s economy would by then by 83% as big as America’s and catching up fast.
By 2022, the report said India would be the fourth biggest economy in the world, with Russia up to seventh and bigger than every country in Western Europe apart from Germany. Britain will be the eighth largest economy followed by France.
Emerging market economy will shoot up the table, according to the WELT. Indonesia, currently, the world’s 16th largest economy is forecast to rise six places to enter the world’s top 10 in 2022. Other Asian economies also move up the ranking. Thailand goes up six places from number 30 in 2012 to 24 in 2022; Taiwan from 27th to 20th and Korea from 15th to 12th.
McWilliams said the study revealed “the dramatic changes now taking place in the world’s economic geography with slow growing European economies falling back and Asian economies, even though their growth is slowing, catching up.”